Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Studies

Abstract A major disruption in the supply chain causes a shutdown or reduction in capacity. A disruption at any point in the supply chain spreads as a ripple effect to other members, causes a reduction or interruption in production and makes distributors unable to respond to customers with a lack of inventory or affects the lead time. The present research introduces and quantitatively shows the ripple effect of the disruption of the supply chain. To describe supply chain recovery and vulnerability, we integrated a discrete-time Markov chain with a Bayesian network model for simulating the propagation behaviour of supply chain interruptions. After that, we provided a set of standards for estimating the knock-on effects of a supply disruption on the supplier,manufacturer and distributor in terms of delivery lead time and revenue loss. We made a comparison between the results of the manufacturer disruption and the supplier disruption. Results indicate that this model can show the result of disruption and high-risk paths in the supply chain so that we can estimate the supply chain vulnerability before disruption. If a disruption occurs at one point in the supply chain, other members will be subject to disruption, and each member closer to the disruption point will receive a larger blast wave. The novelty of the present study is the quantitative estimation of the risk of a long-time disruption ripple effect based on the lead time and lost sales for a three-tier supply chain and compared the ripple effect of the manufacturer disruption with the ripple effect of the supplier disruption.

Abstract The importance of IT services in the life of businesses has led organizations to seek continuous evaluation of the quality of their IT services. In this regard, IT service management best practices such as Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL), have introduced several processes for management of IT services and defined different KPIs for evaluation of each process, so that organizations can evaluate and analyze the quality of their IT services through these KPIs. Despite this fact that evaluation of each ITIL process using mentioned KPIs requires considerable time and money, organizations are looking for solutions to invest on the most effective KPIs to improve their ITSM processes in pursuit of their business requirements. Although there are some researches over process evaluation methods in different areas, there is no scientific research in ITSM process evaluation. This study proposes the unique method for ITSM evaluation using ITIL KPIs based on defined critical success factors (CSF). In addition to that, Simultaneous Evaluation of Criteria and Alternatives (SECA) model as one of the newest MCDM methods has been used for KPI prioritization. Based on the results, we recommended the order of KPIs in ITSM process performance evaluation. This research helps organizations to improve their ITSM processes by investment on the most effective KPIs.