Future of Blockchain Technology in the Iranian Dairy Supply Chain: A ScenarioBased Foresight Study

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Faculty of Management, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbass, Hormozgan, Iran.

10.22116/jiems.2026.541416.1613
Abstract
Blockchain technology offers significant potential to enhance transparency, traceability, and trust in supply chains, yet its adoption in agri-food systems remains uneven. Most studies focus on distribution and retail stages, while limited attention has been given to upstream phases—from dairy farms to processing facilities—where food safety risks, coordination failures, and information asymmetries frequently originate. This gap is particularly critical in developing economies, where regulatory instability, infrastructure limitations, and investment constraints increase uncertainty in technology adoption. Without a structured understanding of these uncertainties, blockchain initiatives risk misaligned policies and fragmented implementation. This study examines the future implementation of blockchain technology in the Iranian dairy supply chain, focusing on the production-to-processing interface. To address systemic interdependencies, the research integrates cross-impact structural analysis with scenario planning. Thirty-seven drivers were identified through literature review and expert consultation. MICMAC analysis revealed seven critical factors influencing adoption: supply chain flexibility, trust among members, governmental policies and regulations, readiness of business partners, social influence on technology acceptance, investment, and supply chain collaboration. Scenario Wizard was then used to construct internally consistent future configurations. Seven coherent scenarios were developed and grouped into desirable, intermediate, and adverse pathways. Findings show that low technological readiness and weak investment commitment act as persistent structural barriers, even when social acceptance and operational flexibility are favorable. In contrast, regulatory stability, coordinated collaboration, and strategic investment alignment significantly increase the likelihood of successful blockchain integration. This study contributes by addressing an underexplored upstream segment in a developing-country context, applying an uncertainty-based methodological framework, and demonstrating that adoption depends more on institutional alignment and organizational readiness than on technological capability alone.

Keywords


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